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Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Investment debate - 20150729 11.32pm


I seldom post here but I guess I'll try to create some interesting topics like some other AFOLs did here.
I believe that there are many Lego investors within this community.
I would like to seek opinions from the AFOLs here in regards to Lego investors.
...
Brickpicker is MUST visit for all the investors. However, the majority of the crowd there are mostly Americans & Europeans.
What I understand from Brickpicker is that
SW theme (especially USC sets)
Modulars
Friends
are ranked in the top list.
So what themes are consider ideal for our LOCAL market?
I have made some friends here and spoken to some and most of them are following closely to the above mentioned themes as well.
Some focused on collecting CMF series while others are into box sets.
Some are more concerned about the storage space & ROI, thus they are very selective with the themes they invest on.
So what are your thoughts on this?
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  • You, JunJie Ng, Recce Chong and 9 others like this.
  • Ivan Ng Modulars and SW
    July 27 at 12:37am · Like
  • Randy Seah *jiak popcorn*
    July 27 at 12:55am · Like · 2
  • Ng CM thought Friends theme not popular for investment
    July 27 at 1:17am · Edited · Like
  • Tan Chee Ann Going to avoid modular and sw and buy cheaper series to play... *jiak popcorns too*
    July 27 at 3:33am · Like
  • Dixon Vew Lim There's various opportunities for investment with Lego sets. Alot ppl tend to think that it's those big eg. UCS/Modular sets that's best invest the money into. Yes these are the ones that tend to appreciate better over the years, however, many fail to take into account space & care required to store these big sets. Any single accident could render the boxes becoming non-mint/damaged condition that slashes the value of these sets. My personal money spinners, are shrewd selection of seasonal/misc theme small gems eg. 40153, 40154 & 40155. And u don't need big sums to invest in those, easily start off with 10 sets & they move quickly & returns goes anything from 30-60%. Then pump the profits back into getting more sets & in a few sale cycles u probably already triple ur initial investment. Big doesn't always brings bigger returns wink emoticon
    July 27 at 5:21am · Like · 8
  • Recce Chong I wouldn't put Friends in that list, on the other hand I felt Exclusives should be there. For me, I bought a lot of small sets to play, although I'm interested in a lot of themes, many are selective sets, only a few small themes that I try to buy all the sets. And I won't be paying large sums for EOL sets. smile emoticon
    July 27 at 7:52am · Like
  • Sajer Connor Gustavus Well, I am procrastinating on something and have spare time on my hands, so sure, I'll play.

    Firstly though, are you seeking AFOLs, true fans of Lego, with regards to their thoughts on Lego investors? Or Lego investors lurking in this group with regar    ds to their strategies for our local market? I'm suspecting the second, given how you then talk about brickpicker and the flow of what you have said. Nowadays, it seems that the grouping 'AFOLs' has moved to the point of people with a slight interest in the toy, driven mainly by the more human interest in money-making. I would love to rant abut this part, but while I do have time, I don't have THAT much time.

    Moving on, I guess I'll share my thoughts on what you seek then. The brickpicker site is a pretty decent site all told, someone in this group even wrote an article on the page! (Pretty flawed article. Although when a TFOL is busy concerned with ideas of investment and profits in a toy, I'm wondering whether I spent my youth wrongly.)

    Yet, as you say, it's mainly geared for the American and European crowd, which also translates to being geared to their market. There's a huge difference between our local market and theirs. Their sellers sell everywhere, with buyers from all over the world. They also have the storage space. Local sellers though, until brave souls start dealing with overseas buyers, have mainly been selling within Singapore.

    Brickpicker's price guides and maybe bricklink too hence do not really apply to Singapore's. Our market is mainly sealed within itself, so the local prices will be weirdly skewed and directed by local tastes and preferences. Overseas, maybe they are larger fans of Star Wars. Locally, what are people into? The trend seems to be minifigures, due to space constraints of Singapore. (Ridiculous I personally feel, Lego is about the bricks, not those immovable little things.)

    This little bubble of the Singapore market, feeding upon itself, with several cunning opportunists who bring in sets from overseas to add to the local supply, is unique and should be considered separate from the trends of the global market. Honestly did I never expect to come back into collecting Lego to learn that a damn gorilla mascot minifigure could go for 30 bucks nor zombies going for 50.

    It's a frightful little bubble that's amusing to be aghast at. Most of the supply still stems from local stores, and Singapore is small enough for stirring inviduals to move around the whole island sweeping up limited stocks and causing chaos. Which then seeps into the minds of the rest of us. 'This set has been disappearing from shelves! It must be really popular, I better get one too when I glimpse it.' The madness feeds itself. Crowd behaviour. There's a long queue for something, it probably is limited stock, better get it now. So till now, people are eagerly reporting stocks of hulkbuster sets in stores when they see it despite it supposedly being a common set.

    (WHYYYYYY!!!! Whyyyyyy my brain screams.)

    This madness just feeds itself. Which on a separate note, is slowly sucking the soul out of what should be a children's toy. CMF is a glaring example. 4 years back, no one in the right mind would go around sweeping gorillas. Why would you need so many? Now, I see kids foolishly feeling through packs in search of a piggy because they think it's cute, but of course, they are all gone by now. For the adult wallet is stronger and mightier than the hopes of a child. Such is life.

    You have to ask yourself. Is this market going to be sustainable? Of course, most lego sets will always guarantee some form of return, so ROI is definitely an important factor in the consideration. Modulars will always spell promise, new folks entering the hobby wanting to back collect. Same for UCS sets. These are pricey sets that most collectors are not willing to plunge their wallets into the abyss for, until when they are gone and regret sets in. Unless I overestimate human sensibilities though, there should be a limit to the extent people are willing to fork out to back collect sets they missed out on. What will that limit be?

    And when you do sell, with the current trend of so many people having the same mindset as you, that the opportunity to make a little sum from this hobby, how many people will you be competing with when you do let go of your stock? Most of the investing mindset set in only fairly recently, so stocks hiding in everyone's houses are probably more plentiful than the sets from 5 years back that go for bonkers now.

    Will your ROI be as high as the previous modulars? Will you be able to foresee the supply and demand? How many new collectors will emerge from the future pool of 6.9m Singaporeans (assuming you are going to hold and wait 15 years)?

    I've given some thought to this interesting topic of yours.

    Life is complicated enough, I'm just going to enjoy my simple hobby.

    tl; dr: I don't quite approve, but oh well.
    July 27 at 8:09am · Like · 13
  • Jervis Mun I have grown past the investment phase, now I truly enjoy Lego.
    July 27 at 8:35am · Like · 8
  • Too Yung Lee I like to say afol more catered to... fans and not business or money making purpose... but i saved alot buying from seller in ebay and carousel. smile emoticon of course you guys shouldn't forget the fans in Malaysia and Indonesia , there are Huge potential over there as well.
    July 27 at 11:24am · Like · 1
  • Randy Seah Dixon Vew Lim > woah! Good advice! *take notes*
    July 27 at 1:11pm · Like · 1
  • Dixon Vew Lim Randy Seah haha my strategy is for small time investors, for tycoon like u hooting in bulk one, it is only small change. Sajer Connor Gustavus Interesting stuffs but I like to disagree on the part about it's just a lil' bubble of the Singapore market. From my knowledge that bubble is actually quite a big one & covers quite a substantial area in Asia-Pac alone. Even some of our neighboring countries have bigger appetite for certain sets/series. When it comes to treating Lego assets as an investment it's boils down to pretty much the same formula for any form of investment, be well informed about your products, your supply & demand in various demographics & u will do well. I also dun think there's a need to classified AFOLs into 'True', 'Diehard' etc, like the acronym AFOL, it's self explaining enough, no need to be self righteous & try to sub label others into 'True' or 'Investors' or any other labels. How do u even judge how much is consider a 'True' fan; to your standards, to mine or does TLG has a standard for level of Fanship. Having a hobby & using the hobby as a platform for selling does not take away the enjoyment that person has for that hobby. Also to my knowledge alot of this group of users-sellers, are the ones that give back more to the community than some passive 'True fans'
    Yesterday at 10:27am · Edited · Like · 3
  • Jean Tan I think I'm buying to invest in my own happiness haha!
    July 27 at 4:12pm · Like · 4
  • Recce Chong Haha, self-indulging happiness!! Of course, the kids get to play them too smile emoticon
    Yesterday at 8:48am · Like · 2
  • Randy Seah Dixon Vew Lim > since when i tycoon? i'm just a poor common IT engineer.
    Yesterday at 12:52pm · Edited · Like
  • Ho Kit Wong I believe that we do need some Lego investors else how can we get cheaper sets via the online platform?
    Yesterday at 1:22pm · Like
  • Tan Chee Ann Just don't buy EOL sets from them.
    Yesterday at 1:48pm · Like
  • Randy Seah Ho Kit Wong > Investers and scalpers are different.
    23 hrs · Like
  • Randy Seah Dixon Vew Lim > there is definately a need to classify all lego fans. If i have access to a limited supply, i would offer access to fans before investers, investers before scalpers.
    23 hrs · Like · 2
  • Dixon Vew Lim Randy Seah Then by what means & standard would the classification of Lego fans be based on?
    18 hrs · Like
  • Sajer Connor Gustavus Hurm. I'll contribute to the discussion again, Dixon Vew Lim.

    Is there really no need to classify AFOLs? Is the term self-explanatory enough as you claim?

    At first glance, I agree it's self-explanatory. It's sufficient for what's it worth. It's just like the phrase humanity. A group of humans. A group of adult fans of lego.

    When you get down to it though, become part of the group, you begin to realise there are different ways to play the game. And reasons too. It's similar to a tabletop role playing game like dungeons and dragons.

    If you've played dnd, you should know there's an alignment system with regards to how you want to play your character. I myself identify with the chaotic neutral alignment. There's no set way/restriction to play your character, as long as you have fun, whatever alignment you follow doesn't matter, it just makes things different.

    Same thing for lego I suppose. There's no set way to enjoy the toy. We have different types of collectors in the group. Those who collect different themes, those who focus on mocs, those who buy sets and build them only. It's all part of the fun and how you want to enjoy it. Classification in this case makes it easier to find who shares the similar tastes and interest as you do. You find fellow AFOLs who are into mocs, you can discuss techniques and the like, the discussion will flow more meaningfully than say with an afol who only builds sets.

    That's the kind of decent classification that should exist in an optimal universe. Of course, it's not a all happy world we live in eh?

    There are bludgeoning blighters who exist, who ruin the game for others. The griefer who doesn't play as others do in a hugely significant way. Like in a trpg, you are expected to work as a team, despite your many different alignments of your characters. Some people ruin it by focusing not on the role playing aspect as traditionally expected, but more on the munchkin, or the hump the other player characters over instead of working to accomplish a quest.

    I believe all AFOLs, despite their various alignments, in the end seek to accomplish the quest set out by the dungeon master. To enjoy the hobby. Yet, the ones who ruin the game have been shining through, become more prominent as of late. Honestly tell me, who the hay needs how many hundreds of hotdog man? Clearly the game is being ruined when you see so many other AFOLs moan about it on the group during that period. That is just one example I've brought up. I'm sure you can recall plenty others so I won't waste my time here.

    Next. I highly doubt there's a differentiation of level of fandom for TLG. Ha. The only classification a for-profit organisation has is the paying customer. Mayhaps it's the same mindset for those here who have recently been more focused on the investment process. I don't really care who I'm selling to, they are all AFOLs to me, ain't no difference as long as they are willing to pay the price and give me my ROIs.

    Therein lies the difference, sir. You are right in saying that having a hobby and using it as a platform for selling doesn't take away the enjoyment you have for lego. I fully agree. You have folks like Randy who do that, but still engage in mocs and set reviews. In fact, it makes a decent way to get to know more people, and funds your own hobby.

    However, when you start talking purely in terms of ROI, pumping profits back into more acquisition of stocks and money spinning sets, there's a gorram huge difference there.

    Yes, there are user-sellers that do give back to the community as you have identified. Yet, are they being edged out by the barely users-sellers group?

    You tell me.
    16 hrs · Like · 3
  • Too Yung Lee This is a topic with no definite answer. Its like the ying n the yang. If u notice, ying has a white dot. Yang has a black dot. But both need each other to prosper. Both need to maintain a balance. E.g afol cannot sell item. Market Place, u can sell. Most inportant to have peace and work together. "May the peace of our lord be with you." Or "Wa-Alaikum-Salaam" or shalom.
    15 hrs · Edited · Like
  • Tan Chee Ann Investors and scalpers are not AFOLs. They will just move on to the next toy once LEGO no longer profitable to scalp. I buy stocks from a coy, I need to be a fan of the coy? Ridiculous.
    14 hrs · Like · 1
  • Randy Seah The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.

    Edmund Burke
    14 hrs · Like
  • Tan Chee Ann My romantic comedy SNAFU
    11 hrs · Like · 1
  • Dixon Vew Lim Sajer Connor Gustavus Wonders who's the Dungeon Master in this big scheme of things with regards to Lego. Anyway the discussion on the term AFOL & possible classification seems to be deviating from the subject posted by Ray Ong I personally avoid being...See More
    11 hrs · Like
  • Tan Chee Ann Preach it! Will you continue to be a fan of the coy if it stop making money for u?
    11 hrs · Like
  • Randy Seah Aim: interesting
    Topic: Investment
    Tan Chee Ann: Market Behaviour
    Sajer: Catergoization of buyer types

    i dont see where we went off topic...
    11 hrs · Edited · Like
  • Dixon Vew Lim Tan Chee Ann Have always been a fan of TLG even before making money from selling Lego sets. Still was a fan even when it wasn't making money for me. Still a fan even when I was making losses giving away Lego sets. At least for me I'm not a fair weather fan, not sure about others & what about u?
    11 hrs · Like
  • Randy Seah Have always been a fan of TLG. Ran Mass Orders to bring cost down. I'm a pretty hardcore fan, i guess. Next Player?
    11 hrs · Edited · Like · 1
  • Tan Chee Ann I'm just a maker, I just want to explore the idea of creating stuff. Lego is just a medium. I'm not a fan of TLG, I only like the quality of their product, Lego for now.
    10 hrs · Like · 1
  • Jong Ong LEGO has been good to me. Been sucking me dry all the time. 😅
    10 hrs · Like
  • Tan Chee Ann Randy Seah why am I market behavior?
    10 hrs · Like
  • Randy Seah Tan Chee Ann > COS I SAY YOU ARE. kidding la, cos you trying to guide ppl to have the right behaviour.
    10 hrs · Like
  • Tan Chee Ann No leh. I just stating facts, no need to white wash anything. Nothing wrong with investing and scalping what. Don't say ur AFOL if you don't even take out LEGO to play.
    10 hrs · Like · 1
  • Ray Ong This is interesting guys. Love this discussion wink emoticon
    I just started collecting Lego but ever since I joined this FB group, I am deeply poisoned by the fanatics here with their shared links..e.g brickpicker.com, brickset.com etc...and that I started small investments on Lego sets. Still learning the ropes though wink emoticon
    10 hrs · Like
  • Dixon Vew Lim Yah seriously if dun even have opened Lego to play with that 1 really I also cannot accept as AFOL grin emoticon
    10 hrs · Unlike · 3
  • Randy Seah Agree with Dixon Vew Lim on that. if never even open a single set, dont !@#$%^&*( call yourself a AFOL.
    10 hrs · Like · 2
  • Randy Seah Tan Chee Ann > the issue is, there are ppl trying to lead dual life, to be friends with AFOL and at the same time, try to sell them as scalpers. you dont scalp friends. you dont friend scalpers. simple as that.
    10 hrs · Like · 7
  • Ivan Ng Wah. Heng ah, I opened many sets to play! Lol
    9 hrs · Like
  • Tan Chee Ann Die I no time to open all my sets to play... can give chance?
    6 hrs · Like · 1
  • Randy Seah No chance. but I give your son face.
    6 hrs · Like · 1
  • Tan Chee Ann Thankiew boss.
    6 hrs · Like
  • Wei Cyan Lim Gong simi? Simi daiji here? TL : DR
    5 hrs · Like
  • Daniel Lee Afob - Adult Fan Of Box
    5 hrs · Like · 1
  • Randy Seah What's TL:DR?
    3 hrs · Like
  • Randy Seah Wei Cyan Lim > nvm, googled it, too long : didn't read. Well, it's drama. If you not interested to watch, no point telling also. How bout a game of throne spoiler? I can tell you who died in which episode.
    3 hrs · Like
  • Wei Cyan Lim Got new season Liao meh?
    3 hrs · Like
  • Chris Lim Jon snow!!!!
    2 hrs · Like
  • Randy Seah jon still got chance la. hound also. Ned confirm no chance.
    58 mins · Like
  • Freddy Tan Like our fav late encik used to say "you die ! i die ! everyone die !!"
    2 mins · Like

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